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If We Leave Now ….

December 14, 2009

Friday morning a CNN headline informed us that the stock market is inching forward, but America is “still in the red”, simply reminding us that we’re spending more than we’re making.

Ouch. With an expanding war and expanding government (Af-Pak war and healthcare reform respectively), expenses seem excessive. But, thinking about the Af-Pak quagmire within this perspective made me realize the costly necessity of our engagement. Because even though it may seem cost effective and immediately convenient to bring troops home , our absence in the Af-Pak region entails risks that are perhaps higher than the costs of Obama’s troop surge, even in our downward economy.

Let’s run a counterfactual to demonstrate. If we begin troop withdrawal, ultimately winding down NATO forces as well, in the absence of a U.S. presence, Af-Pak becomes fully accessible to regional powers, including China, Russia, and India to step in. Security and development will be led by other foreign powers who emerge with powerful influence in this strategic area. Because in addition to our foremost interest in obliterating Al Qaeda, Afghanistan is strategically poised to access Central Asian energy interests as is Pakistan. Pakistan is not landlocked so the Karachi port becomes key to transporting Central Asian energy to international markets. In our absence, Russia or China emerges as forerunners in supporting Af-Pak in their route to development meaning major energy projects that we stand to benefit from, such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan pipeline might take a backseat to projects led by Russia. Similarly, energy projects like the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline which the Heritage Organization has already called “unacceptable” for U.S. interests make further headway in our absence with the support China. So withdrawing troops runs the risk of our losing access to potential energy resources and could further threaten Europe by allowing the former USSR to gain a “stranglehold over European energy security”.

Similarly, there are critical security risks that come along with our withdrawal. In our absence, regional powers that are historically not geopolitically neutral in the can create a climate of further conflict.

– Current Afghanistan-India alliance (rapidly increasing)

– Historic Pakistan – Afghanistan alliance (rapidly decreasing)

– Russia-Pakistan enmity (as per India Russia alliance)

– Russia-Afghanistan enmity (Soviet Afghan War)

– India-Russia alliance (An expanding, long term alliance began during the Cold War)

– India-China enmity (Sino Indian War)

– Pakistan-China alliance (Long term alliance began during the Sino Indian War)

– India-Pakistan enmity (Deep mistrust dating back to Partition in 1947 with 3 wars fought since)

This complex mix of regional relations in tandem with competing interests for Afghanistan and Pakistan creates weighty risks that are too big to take. For instance, there’s a widespread notion that Pakistan sought to wield control over Afghanistan to use it as a buffer against India and currently, the Pakistani government says the same is true for India as relations warm between Delhi and Kabul. By removing the United States from the picture, the risk of leaving two nuclear armed, historic adversaries vying for geopolitically strategic and energy rich Afghanistan becomes a weighty concern.

So two weeks ago when Fareed Zakaria questioned Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on whether or not India believes Pakistan is doing it all it can to uproot terrorism, and Mr. Singh gently responded that America has given him all the assurance he needs, one realizes the magnanimity of our mitigating tensions in the region. Leaving the Af-Pak region now runs great potential for further insecurity and could run directly counter to our energy interests. Let’s hope our policies in uprooting terror are accompanied by development strategies for long term stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan so that our presence is not perpetually required.

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11 comments

  1. “in the absence of a U.S. presence, Af-Pak becomes fully accessible to regional powers, including China, Russia, and India to step in. Security and development will be led by other foreign powers who emerge with powerful influence in this strategic area”

    Do you think they are not playing their part in this Political struggle and upheaval.

    There have been reports, by Pakistani Intelligence, Ret. Gen Musharraf and some media elements of Pakistan like “Aaj” are revealing stories regarding this.

    China probably not that much, but India and Russia surely is active and involved.

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  2. You’re correct. Regional powers, like Russia and India are very much concerned about their roles in the struggle’s Af-Pak faces today.

    In terms of active involvement, perhaps you can share some of the stories you mention where that’s spelled out. It would make for some interesting further analysis on this issue.

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  3. US has a pat on India’s Back not on China’s Back, India aided Afghanistan 1.2 Billion dollar, even American Generals complained about Rising Indian’s influence in Afghanistan, US is and would be more interested in giving preference to Indian influence as compare to Chinese Influence, because if they leave now, Pakistan can concentrate on Gawadar port and China and Pakistan both would get benefit, since Jewish lobby is behind and they would never want to see Muslim country like Pakistan flourishing and it would be an alarming sign for India as well.

    did u hear news about Drug money saved banks in global crisis, claims UN advisor, what else i can say

    if they leave now it’s better for Pakistan and China, but if they don’t leave it’s better for India, US, Russia and especially CIA who is earning through opium.

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    • The Gwadr/China angle is a very good point Yasser. Not sure about the lobbying part, but I agree that Pakistans Gwadr in close partnership with China does not run in line with American interests.

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  4. I frankly don’t agree that US immediate withdrawal will be a good idea. Since Afghanistan has become unstable again, a strong force needs to remain there. US force needs to fast track its activities. Train Afghan army and evolve Karzai from the Mayor of Kabul to the President of Afghanista.

    If US can do that, that will be unprecedented in Afghan History. Because Afghanistan has always been run by War lords and tribal leaders during Taliban and the kingship before.

    What US also can do is what the Afghan king prior to the Soviet Invasion. Have tribal Leaders sign a pact of unity and solidarity. They would keep their promises and won’t fight, more over they will accept the Karzai Government as the national unity force rather than feelin threatened of losing their jirgas and powers.

    US is in deep shit, it can’t leave now!! Even if they leave it won’t make a change because the problem that Pakistan is facing is unique. These so called Taliban are not really Taliban. Pak government is just using these terrorist to get more aid and stick to power. Fear politics is the best tool a politician can have.

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    • You mention “tribal leaders signing a pact of solidarity”. Probably a brilliant idea Umer. Pervez Musharraf was on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN show a few weeks back saying the same thing. National unity can be achieved in Afghanistan only when the minority and majority populations are represented in government and within a time tested system that works for that country.

      Thanks for sharing such good insights 🙂

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      • oh I didn’t know Musharraf said the same thing. Cool, I will find that interview. Thanks for letting me know.

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  5. […] the Obama administration grappled with crafting an effective strategy in what is now referred to as the Af-Pak War. Collectively, foreign policymaking heavyweights attempted at a solution. Special Envoy Holbrooke […]

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  6. […] the Obama administration grappled with crafting an effective strategy in what is now referred to as the Af-Pak War. Collectively, foreign policymaking heavyweights attempted at a solution. Special Envoy Holbrooke […]

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